Exclusive Democratic Primary Predictions

Note: this is a special report from a CDA contributor. The views expressed here do not express the views of Christian Democrats of America as an organization, our affiliates or team.

Raoul Davis, brand strategist and former political operative, has provided CDA exclusive predictions for the Democratic primaries. Davis has a 96% success rate in predictions for the last two Presidential elections, successfully predicting 47 of the 50 states in the 2016 Presidential election and 49 out of 50 in the 2012 Presidential election.

Davis is predicting Sanders will pull out a win in Iowa tonight, and also pick up New Hampshire and Nevada before Biden wins South Carolina. On Super Tuesday he predicts Biden, Buttigeg, Sanders, and Warren all winning states. As Davis puts it, “Beating President Trump is the primary concern of Democratic primary voters and Biden has most effectively focused on this message. It will lead to him having the most primary state wins in the first month of the primaries. Sanders has built significant momentum and will carry that momentum to win a multitude of states. Sanders may in fact win Iowa and run the table with the first three primaries putting Biden into a difficult position. Elizabeth Warren has failed to emphasize her clear differentiation points with Sanders, this has prevented her from climbing back up after criticism for her Medicare for all plan.”

Davis goes on to say, “Expect a few surprises in February, including Tom Steyer finishing in the top 3-4 in both Nevada and South Carolina. Additionally, Bloomberg’s Super Tuesday strategy may pay off to help him finish in the top 3-4 in states like California, Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Utah, and Texas.”

Coming out of Super Tuesday Davis expect Sanders to win Vermont, Utah, California, Colorado, Maine, and Minnesota; Biden to win Virginia, Tennessee, Arkansas, Alabama, and North Carolina. Davis continues, “Our three biggest unknowns are Texas, we give Biden a slight edge there. Oklahoma, expect Bloomberg to pull off a surprise there and in Massachusetts Warren pulls off the narrow win.”

If Biden does win the nomination, Davis predicts his most likely VP candidate in order is Stacey Abrams, Kamala Harris, or Amy Kloubuchar.

Davis utilizes a proprietary blend of polling trend analysis, social media sentiment, and experience in Human to Human branding to make his predictions.

So, what do you think? What will he get right and what will he get wrong?

Full February 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary Predictions

Date State/territory Type Eligibility 1st Place
3-Feb Iowa Caucus Closed Biden
11-Feb New Hampshire Primary Mixed Sanders
22-Feb Nevada Caucus Closed Sanders
29-Feb South Carolina Primary Open Biden
3-Mar Alabama Primary Open Biden
American Samoa* Caucus Open Biden
Arkansas Primary Open Biden
California Primary Mixed Sanders
Colorado Primary Mixed Sanders
Maine Primary Closed Sanders
Massachusetts Primary Mixed Warren
Minnesota Primary Closed Sanders
North Carolina Primary Mixed Biden
Oklahoma Primary Mixed Bloomberg
Tennessee Primary Open Biden
Texas Primary Closed Biden
Utah Primary Mixed Sanders
Vermont Primary Open Sanders
Virginia Primary Open Biden