Exclusive Democratic Primary Predictions Ahead of Iowa Caucus Tonight
Note: this is a special report from a CDA contributor. The views expressed here do not express the views of Christian Democrats of America as an organization, our affiliates or team.
Raoul Davis, brand strategist and former political operative, has provided CDA exclusive predictions for the Democratic primaries. Davis has a 96% success rate in predictions for the last two Presidential elections, successfully predicting 47 of the 50 states in the 2016 Presidential election and 49 out of 50 in the 2012 Presidential election.
Davis is predicting Sanders will pull out a win in Iowa tonight, and also pick up New Hampshire and Nevada before Biden wins South Carolina. On Super Tuesday he predicts Biden, Buttigeg, Sanders, and Warren all winning states. As Davis puts it, “Beating President Trump is the primary concern of Democratic primary voters and Biden has most effectively focused on this message. It will lead to him having the most primary state wins in the first month of the primaries. Sanders has built significant momentum and will carry that momentum to win a multitude of states. Sanders may in fact win Iowa and run the table with the first three primaries putting Biden into a difficult position. Elizabeth Warren has failed to emphasize her clear differentiation points with Sanders, this has prevented her from climbing back up after criticism for her Medicare for all plan.”
Davis goes on to say, “Expect a few surprises in February, including Tom Steyer finishing in the top 3-4 in both Nevada and South Carolina. Additionally, Bloomberg’s Super Tuesday strategy may pay off to help him finish in the top 3-4 in states like California, Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Utah, and Texas.”
Coming out of Super Tuesday Davis expects the field to dwindle down further. His early prediction is only Biden, Sanders, Warren, Steyer, Bloomberg, and Yang will be remaining, while Mayor Pete will have enough money to continue. “I don’t see Mayor Pete staying in the race past mid-March. The results of February will put Biden in the driver’s seat. However, concerns around the Hunter Biden scandal may
play a role in allowing Sanders to continue to win several primaries and allow Bloomberg to get enough momentum that Biden doesn’t receive enough delegates prior to the Democratic National Convention. If Biden’s opponents don’t focus on these concerns, then he will coast to the nomination” Davis adds.
If Biden does win the nomination, Davis predicts his most likely VP candidate in order is Stacey Abrams, Kamala Harris, or Amy Kloubuchar.
Davis utilizes a proprietary blend of polling trend analysis, social media sentiment, and experience in Human to Human branding to make his predictions.
So, what do you think? What will he get right and what will he get wrong?
Full February 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary Predictions